IMPORTANT NOTE — this post is outdated. We published a new Senate analysis on 10/5/2020!
This post was co-written by Sophia Lin-David, and Caitlin Smith provided additional research assistance.
Most Dems who have been following politics have been paying attention to the Senate. With 35 seats up for grabs in November, control of the chamber -- and with it, the legislative agenda and scores of judicial appointments -- hangs in the balance.
But whom should Dems support in these final eight weeks? Many races have gotten a lot of attention from the national media, but they’re not all as critical right now. Some high-profile candidates are far behind, and meanwhile, some close races are getting a lot less love from Dem donors.
In this post, we analyzed polling and fundraising in all 35 Senate races in November, and identified three top picks where your donation will have the biggest impact down the home stretch.
Please also check out our House analysis, which uses a similar approach to identify the 9 highest-impact ways you can help Dems retain control of the lower chamber in November.
How we made our top Senate picks
We used a two-stage approach to identify the key races for Dem donors in these final months. (More details on our methods are at the bottom of the post.)
First, we identified races with high-quality data suggesting they’re polling within 5 percent,. That’s a gap that data suggest is close enough to close with GOTV and/or persuasion efforts. We didn’t care if the Dem was leading or behind, as long as the margin was within 5.
Then, we scored each of these close races based on 3 criteria:
Relative funds raised and spend: We downgraded races where Dems are way ahead in the money race.
Total funds raised and spent per capita: We used funds raised (and spent by PACs) per capita to assess which races seem over-saturated with dollars for broadcast media, mailings, and in-person GOTV based on population size.
Synergy: Finally we gave a boost to states that are “double word scores,” where Dem Senate support might trickle down to state legislature races. (As we’ve discussed before, state legislatures are “ground zero” for the redistricting that will take place after the 2020 Census.)
Before we list our three top choices, a few words about some high-profile candidates who didn’t make the cut based on polling. Arizona and Colorado are great pickup candidates for Dems, but Mark Kelly (+11%) and John Hickenlooper (+9%) are up far enough that they may not need quite as much support in the final weeks. On the other end of the spectrum, Mike Espy (MS; -8%), Steve Bullock (MT; -6%), and M.J. Hegar (TX; -7%) fell just outside our survey cutoff; although we are optimistic about their chances, we had to draw the line somewhere.
Our picks: 3 Dem Senate candidates to support down the home stretch
Of the 10 Senate races within -/+5%, we identified three that we think are most worthy of your support in the final weeks. All of them are pick-up opportunities for Dems, and also provide down-ballot support to state legislature races. Double happiness!
GA regular (Jon Ossoff)
This race for an open (formerly R) seat is raking in media attention and donations from both sides, but on a per-capita basis it’s actually still relatively underfunded. There’s also potential trickle-down impact on the state legislature, which is 40 percent Dem but shifting leftward rapidly, as well as key House races in GA-6 and GA-7. (Polling -3%; D/R funding ratio 38%; $3 per capita)
IA (Theresa Greenfield)
Historically red Iowa has gotten bluer since 2016, and with a recent surge in new registered Democrats, Greenfield is well positioned against increasingly unpopular incumbent Joni Ernst. Meanwhile, the state’s lower legislative chamber is within a few seats of flipping from red to blue, which would end the Republican trifecta that’s existed since 2017. (Polling -2%; D/R funding ratio 235%; $22 per capita)
NC (Cal Cunningham)
Cunningham is locked in a tight race with Thom Tillis, who barely won his first-term election in 2014. This contest has gotten a bad rap as being one of the most expensive in the nation, but it’s not so flush on a per capita basis. And after posting huge gains in 2018, Dems are within a few seats of wresting control of the lower state legislative chamber for the first time since 2008. (Polling +3%; D/R funding ratio 160%; $7 per capita)
A quick final note about the 7 fabulous Dems who are polling within 5%, but didn’t make our “top pick” list. Al Gross (AK), Amy McGrath (KY), and Jamie Harrison (SC) all made the grade on funding metrics, but these races are in states where the state legislatures aren’t quite as flippable, so there’s less down-ballot strategic synergy compared with our top picks. Barbara Bollier (KS), Tina Smith (MN), and Jeanne Shaheen (NH) are very far ahead of their opponents in the money race, and although that could change, at this time we think they are less in need of a boost. And the reason Sara Gideon (ME) didn’t make our cut is that on a per-capita basis, the Maine race is so over-funded right now ($58 per capita) that we believe your incremental dollar of donation won’t have quite as great an effect.
Let’s do this!
We don’t need to tell you how important it is to flip the Senate in November. Although there are many close races currently, we think these three candidates give motivated Dem donors the best chance to have an impact in the final weeks before Election Day. So, don’t delay — send a few bucks to them today!
Methods:
Candidates: Lists were defined on September 7, 2020. For races with “jungle elections” (GA regular and LA) and those with primaries still pending, we defined the “candidates” as the Dem and Republican with the largest cash raised and spent (see below).
Polling data: We obtained data from fivethirtyeight.com on September 7, 2020. We first looked for the most recent non partisan 2020 Senate poll with a B grade or higher, taken after Super Tuesday. If such a poll didn’t exist, we took a B grade or higher 2020 presidential poll comparing Biden and Trump post-Super Tuesday, or the most recent state-wide election margin for President or U.S. Senate. In all cases, “most recent” was based on the closing date of the poll.
Financial data: We downloaded data on all candidates from FEC.gov on September 2, 2020. For each candidate, we estimated the total amount that would have been spent on the candidate if all fundraising and PAC spending stopped today, by summing cash on hand, candidate spending to date, PAC spending for the candidate, PAC spending against the opponent, and party spending for the candidate. For per capita spending, we used U.S. Census estimates of states’ populations in 2020.
Prioritization: For each race that was within 5% polling, we assigned scores as follows: (a) Dem/Rep total funding ratio: +1 point if ratio is up to 200%; (b) total Dem+Rep funding per capita: +1 point if <$10; +0.5 points if $10-$30; (c) state legislature rated as high-priority by Flippable.org: +1 point.
Sophia Lin-David is a junior at The Winsor School in Boston, MA, and a former political organizer with Blue Future. Caitlin Smith is a senior at The Winsor School in Boston, MA, where she is involved in the school newspaper, debate team, and environmental club.
Art via U.S. Senate.