Many Dems are following the Presidential and Senate elections closely — but don’t forget the House!
Although Dems currently hold a majority in the House, we can’t get complacent. We need control of the White House and both legislative chambers to drive meaningful change over the next four years.
House Dem voters will probably also pull the lever for Biden, and their Dem Senate candidate if there’s a race on the ballot. Up-ballot FTW!
And, let’s not forget “down-ballot” impact: Dem control in state legislatures will impact Federal redistricting and many key policy decisions in the coming decade.
But whom should Dems support in these final eight weeks? Many of the House races that are getting a lot of national media attention may not be the most impactful ones for your donation dollars right now. Some high-profile candidates are far ahead in fundraising, or the race is saturated with dough, or don’t offer synergy with other key races.
In this post, we analyzed polling and fundraising in all 435 House races in November, and identified 9 top picks where your donation will have the biggest impact down the home stretch.
Please also check out our Senate analysis, which uses a similar approach to identify the 3 highest-impact ways you can help Dems gain control of the upper chamber in November.
How we made our top House picks
We used a two-stage approach to identify the key races for Dem donors in these final months. (More details on our methods are at the bottom of the post.)
First, we assessed “closeness” of the races, which we assessed differently depending on polling status and/or 2018 results. We focused on ones with high-quality, recent polling data suggesting they’re within 5 percent (regardless of who’s ahead), which is a gap that data suggest is close enough to close with GOTV and/or persuasion efforts. For unpolled races, as well as those with polling data that were lower-quality and/or older, we prioritized races that were within 5 points (in either direction) in 2018.
Then, we scored each of these close races for “impact” based on 3 criteria:
Relative funds raised and spend: We downgraded races where Dems are way ahead in the money race.
Total funds raised and spent per capita: We used funds raised (and spent by PACs) per capita to assess which races seem over-saturated with dollars for broadcast media, mailings, and in-person GOTV.
Synergy: Finally we gave a boost to states that are “multi word scores,” where Dem House support might trickle up to Presidential battleground states and Senate contests, and down to state legislature races. (We used the target list of Flippable.org to guide our prioritization.)
In our first stage of analysis, we identified 45 races for further focus; 13 of these had recent high-quality polls within 5 points; 22 had lower-quality and/or older polls, and were included based on a mix of polling data and 2018 results, and 10 were unpolled in 2020, but within 5 points in 2018.
From that list of 45, we found 9 that were “highest-impact” based on the finance and synergy criteria above. All of them are pick-up opportunities; that’s somewhat by design, because we downgraded races where the Dem has a significant fundraising advantage. And they cover a wide spectrum of rankings by forecasters like Sabato and Cook. Some are legit “toss-ups”, while others are longer shots that we think could benefit greatly from our support down the home stretch.
Before we list our top picks, four quick notes:
Our method strongly favors races in states with “multi word score” potential. That means some great candidates in states like California and New York, which aren’t critical for Biden, Senate, or state legislature this year, got downgraded using our approach.
We did not rigorously analyze the overlap between House districts and state legislature districts to score “synergy”. Instead, we assumed that within any given House district, there are probably some state legislature races that would benefit from a Dem GOTV boost.
Our final ranking depend somewhat on fundraising and PAC spending data, which are evolving in real time. Things could (and will!) change in the coming days and weeks.
We did only cursory diligence on each of these candidates; our focus was on electing Dems, not on the nuances of their policy positions. Please do your own diligence.
Our picks: 9 Dem House candidates to support down the home stretch
1. AZ-6 (Hiral Tipirneni)
This Scottsdale area district has all the makings of a “sleeper” opportunity for Dems. Polling is tight, both candidates are somewhat underfunded so far, and 5-term incumbent David Schweikert has been dogged by ethics violations. Support for Tipirneni could be a rare “quadruple word score” opportunity up- and down-ballot, given the hot Senate race in Arizona, a tight contest for the state’s Electoral College votes, and a very real chance to flip both state legislative chambers from red to blue. (Polling +3% (recent, high-qual); 2018 D margin: -10%; D/R funding ratio 196%; $6 raised and spent per capita)
2. GA-7 (Carolyn Bourdeaux)
Bourdeaux is back to finish the job she started in 2018, when she came within 500 votes of flipping this suburban district outside Atlanta. But despite the national focus on this toss-up race, it’s surprisingly underfunded so far. Bourdeaux’s GOTV efforts, particularly in diverse Gwinnett County, will likely also yield dividends for Dems in the tight Presidential contest and the state’s two hot Senate races, as well as down-ballot in the state legislature. (Polling +4% (recent, high-qual); 2018 D margin: -0.1%; D/R funding 152%; $5 per capita)
3. MI-6 (Jon Hoadley)
Fred Upton won most of his 17 races for this seat by wide double-digit margins. But his 5-point squeaker in 2018 signals trouble for the moderate Republican in this southwestern Michigan district that spans a slew of mostly white counties, as well as more diverse Kalamazoo. Hoadley trails in the money hunt, but given his strong polling numbers and the low fundraising totals so far, this looks like a “sleeper” pickup opportunity for Dems. And the gains will likely trickle up to Gary Peters’s Senate campaign, which is a key seat for Dems to retain in 2020, as well as down to the flippable state leg. (Polling +5% (recent, low-qual); 2018 D margin: -5%; D/R funding 61%; $5 per capita)
4. OH-1 (Kate Schroder)
GOP Rep. Steve Chabot has only lost once in this Cincinnati-area district since 1994, and many Dems assumed the seat was unwinnable in 2020. But Schroder has reportedly run a top-notch campaign, and this public health professional (yay!) has moved the race into the toss-up column, and looks poised to send him home for good. Ohio is a perennial linchpin of the Presidential battle, and in the state legislature, Dems have the chance to break GOP supermajorities in both chambers. (Polling -2% (recent, high-qual); 2018 D margin: -5%; D/R funding 83%; $4 per capita)
5. OH-12 (Alaina Shearer)
This Columbus-area district is one of only two on our list that hasn’t been polled so far — but all signs point to a winnable race for Team Blue. Incumbent Troy Balderson eked out a win in the 2018 special election by fewer than 2,000 votes, and then won the general three months later by only 4 points. Since then, political newbie Schearer has lagged him in total funding, but she is catching up. This is one of the cheapest House flipping opportunities for Dems in terms of total funding and spending. (Unpolled in 2020; 2018 D margin: -4%; D/R funding 34%; $3 per capita)
6. PA-10 (Eugene Depasquale)
This south-central Pennsylvania district that includes Harrisburg and York was deep-red for years, but after redistricting in 2018 … not so much. Republican Scott Perry’s margin in his inaugural race here in 2018 was below 3 points, a somewhat unimpressive showing in a Trump +9 (post-redistricting) district. DePasquale, the state’s Auditor General, is neck-and-neck with Perry, and the funding and spending race is roughly even as well. In terms of synergy, the state is a keystone (see what we did there?) for the Electoral College, and down-ballot, Pennsylvania’s state legislature is one of the most flippable in the nation after big Dem gains in 2018. (Polling +4%; 2018 D margin: -3% (recent, low-qual); D/R funding 74%; $6 per capita)
7. TX-10 (Mike Siegel)
This district, which includes parts of Greater Houston and Greater Austin, looks like an under-appreciated — and under-funded — pick-up opportunity for Dems. In their previous match-up, Siegel lost to incumbent Michael McCaul (elected in ‘04) by only just over 4 points, despite the district tilting +9 for Trump. But although the race is almost certainly closer than it appears, the Sanders-endorsed progressive trails in funding, and needs a boost. Plus, Texas is an emerging battleground front for President, GOP Senate incumbent John Cornyn is looking vulnerable, and the state legislature is getting bluer every cycle. (Polling -8% (recent, low-qual); 2018 D margin: -4%; D/R funding 36%; $5 per capita)
8. TX-24 (Candace Valenzuela)
Valenzuela is poised to become the first Black Latina in Congress if she flips this open seat in north Texas between Dallas and Fort Worth. Her chances look good, given that Beto O’Rourke won here in his 2018 Senate run. But don’t be lulled into complacency; although one low-quality poll had her comfortably up in early August, another the same week showed a dead heat. This high-priority race has attracted attention and dollars at the national level, but it’s still not “overpriced” by our math, so additional Dem donations would likely have a big impact. (Polling +8% (recent, low-qual); 2018 D margin: -3%; D/R funding 176%; $6 per capita)
9. TX-31 (Donna Imam)
In this rapidly diversifying district north of Austin, incumbent John Carter barely fended off M.J. Hegar in 2018, after almost two decades of lay-up victories. This year, newcomer Imam’s aggressive use of direct voter contact and focus on expanding the electorate helped drive record turnout in her decisive primary runoff victory. She’s gotten a ton of high-profile endorsements and has a strong shot to win, if she can close the funding gap in this low-money race. (Unpolled in 2020; 2018 D margin: -3%; D/R funding 26%; $3 per capita)
A quick final note: Many fabulous Dems who are polling within 5%, but didn’t make our “top pick” list. Some of these are in states where the state legislature isn’t as critical (e.g., Collin Peterson (MN-7), Kara Eastman (NE-2)), the Dem is far ahead in the money hunt (e.g., Katie Porter (CA-45)), and/or the total amount of funds spent and deployable so far is so huge that your donation is less likely to have a big impact (e.g., Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50)). But even though they’re not on our list, we love all of these candidates, and wish them the best!
Let’s do this!
It’s crucial that we retain control of the House in 2020 … but how can we have the biggest impact down the home stretch? Things are looking good for the Dems, but we think that in these final weeks, the 9 races we highlighted give donors the best chance to not just help us maintain control, but also widen the margin. So, don’t delay — send a few bucks to them today!
Methods:
Candidates: Lists were defined on September 7, 2020.
Polling data: We obtained data from fivethirtyeight.com on September 7, 2020, on the most recent 2020 House poll taken after Super Tuesday (which we called “recent”). For polled candidates, we advanced those who met one of the following criteria: (a) Recent, high-quality poll (rated B or higher) within 5%; (b) older, high-quality poll within 5%, if it polled the appropriate candidates; (c) low-quality poll with any timing and any margin, with 2018 margin within 5%; (d) at least two low-quality polls within 5%, and 2018 margin >5%. For unpolled candidates, we advanced those with a 2018 margin within 5%. In all cases, poll dates were based on the closing date.
Financial data: We downloaded data on all candidates from FEC.gov on September 2, 2020. For each candidate, we estimated the total amount that would have been spent on the candidate if all fundraising and PAC spending stopped today, by summing cash on hand, candidate spending to date, PAC spending for the candidate, PAC spending against the opponent, and party spending for the candidate. For per capita spending, we divided total spending by the average Congressional district population (710,767) based on Census estimates.
Prioritization: For race that advanced based on polling data, we assigned scores as follows: (a) Dem/Rep total funding ratio: +1 point if ratio is up to 200%; (b) total Dem+Rep funding per capita: +1 point if <$10; +0.5 points if $10-$30; (c) state legislature rated as high-priority by Flippable.org: +1 point.
Art via Susan Sterner (on Wikipedia).