In most of our analyses, we try to figure out where Dems should apply our time and resources to win the most and largest victories in November. But the GOP isn’t completely incompetent — they are looking at the same data and trying to figure out how to win as well. So we need to anticipate their actions, so we can counter them in the final months before Election Day.
With that in mind, we decided to take a page from Sun Tzu’s playbook, and try to “know our enemy”. If you were running Trump’s 2020 campaign, what would you do? In our latest research post on GitHub, we looked specifically at whether boosting turnout could deliver Trump a second term:
In a previous post, we analyzed how changes in turnout might help Democrats win in various battleground states. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign is doing the same math. As Trump has fallen in polls of battleground states, it’s becoming increasingly clear that his re-election strategy is to “rally the base.” But can that strategy actually work?
Short answer: no. Trump might win a few battleground states by boosting turnout among his most die-hard supporters, but he’d still lose the rest, as well as the election overall.
Please read the entire post on GitHub for more details on the results and the methods. And if you’re a fellow “data geek,” please check out our full Github page.
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