Note: this updated Senate analysis (10/5/20) supplants our prior post from September.
In early September, we analyzed the Senate based on polling and fundraising and made 3 recommendations of key, high-impact races to support. But things have changed in terms of both polling and fundraising in the past month, so we re-ran the numbers.
In this post (early October), we provide 4 new Senate picks for “biggest bang-for-buck” races to support in the final 30 days or so before the election. Read on for details!
Please also check out our House analysis, which uses a similar approach to identify the 9 highest-impact ways you can help Dems retain control of the lower chamber in November.
How we made our top Senate picks
In brief, we analyzed the Senate races using two main criteria:
We looked for recent, high-quality polling data showing a margin of -/+5%, which we think is enough to close with GOTV and/or persuasion efforts.
Of those, we then looked at two financial metrics: relative funds raised and spent (to eliminate races where the Dem is super-far ahead in fundraising), and total funds raised and spent per capita (to eliminate “over-saturated” races).
If you’re keeping track, this is a little different from the methods we used in our original post, where we also up-ranked races with "down-ballot” state legislatures that had been ranked highly by Flippable.org. Frankly, that’s because although we love the idea of flipping state legislatures blue — and will write more about that in an upcoming post — when it comes to the Senate, the goal is simply to win, period. So we don’t want to eliminate races that could help us get to 51 just because they don’t happen to provide synergy.
Before we list our top choices, a few words about what changed since our analysis in early September:
Two of the three races we highlighted last time dropped out of our top picks — but that’s a good thing, because those candidates are doing fabulously! Theresa Greenfield (IA) went from -2% to +2% against Trump toady Joni Ernst since our earlier post. It’s still tight, but massive fundraising has now made this an overpriced race ($43 per capita) compared with other options. In North Carolina, Cal Cunningham expanded his lead over Thom Tillis from +3% to +6% since early September. It’s still a worthwhile race to support on the funding front ($7 per capita), but because his margin exceeds our 5% threshold, we think there are other candidates who would benefit more from our support in the final weeks.
Several races that were polling within 5% in early September fell out of that range in the last four weeks. Amy McGrath (KY) is now at -12%, and although we hate Mitch McConnell as much as the next folks, we’re pessimistic she can close such a wide gap. Meanwhile, Tina Smith (MN), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), and Sara Gideon (ME) are polling at +8%, +15%, +6%, and +6%, respectively, in recent high-quality polls via 538.com — all of which are improvements since early September. Yay, Dems! Given that these folks are in good shape, we think it’s important for us to fund the next tier of candidates who could benefit more from our support.
A new race made it inside our 5% margin in the last few weeks: Steve Bullock (MT), who’s polling at -1% (up from -6% in our earlier analysis). However, that contest is wildly overfunded, with a huge combined total of $55 per capita. Bullock is a great candidate, and this is a winnable race, but on a “bang for buck” basis, if you have limited dollars to donate to Senate races, we think you should support other candidates below. Or, consider funding the Dem House candidate in Montana, Kathleen Williams, who could be pivotal if the Electoral College deadlocks and the House ends up deciding the Presidential winner. (See our prior post on the “House decides” scenario here.)
Mike Espy (MS) is getting some press attention, and this contest is relatively underfunded ($7 per capita; D/R funding ratio 82%). However, there hasn’t been any high-quality polling here since June, when Espy was down by 8%, so he doesn’t make our cut. Keep an eye out, though, as this is definitely a race to support if reliable polling data emerge showing he’s within striking range.
Finally, in our prior calculus we eliminated Al Gross (AK), Barbara Bollier (KS), and Jaime Harrison (SC) from our top picks because their states don’t have flippable state legislatures this year. But as things have evolved, we’ve decided this criterion isn’t as critical now as it seemed in September. And thus, in this analysis, all 3 made our top tier.
Our picks: 4 Dem Senate candidates to support down the home stretch
As of this writing (10/5/20), we believe there are 4 Senate races that are most worthy of your support in the final weeks. All of them are pick-up opportunities for Dems and would help us flip the Senate blue. Let’s do this!
AK (Al Gross)
Alaska’s Senate race was a bit of a sleeper until a July poll showed Gross, an independent who will caucus with the Dems, at -5%. Since then, he’s closed the gap, and America’s Last Frontier has become a donation hotspot. Although the race is getting pricey on a per-capita basis, an added bonus is that support for Gross would likely trickle down-ballot to House candidate Alyse Galvin, whose win could help secure the White House for Biden if the Electoral College deadlocks. (See our prior post on the “House decides” scenario here.) (Polling +0%; D/R funding ratio 121%; $29 per capita)
GA regular (Jon Ossoff)
PACs have poured tens of millions into this race for an open (formerly R) seat since our analysis last month. But it still relatively under-funded on a per capita basis, and Ossoff — who gained several points and is now in a dead heat — is still at a financial deficit. We also love the synergy with Carolyn Bourdeaux in GA-7, one of our top House picks — see our House analysis here — as well as the chance to flip Georgia blue in the Electoral College. (Polling +0%; D/R funding ratio 37%; $8 per capita)
KS (Barbara Bollier)
The highest-quality polls put Kansas within inches of sending a Dem to the Senate for the first time in 88 years. Bollier leads in fundraising, and an extra boost could be just what the doctor ordered (Bollier’s a former anesthesiologist). (Polling -2%; D/R funding ratio 147%; $14 per capita)
SC (Jaime Harrison)
The chance to kick Lindsay Graham to the curb is a dream come true — and Harrison looks like he can get it done. Despite months of knife’s-edge polling and high attention from Dems, donations to this race are still relatively high-impact, so helping Harrison close the funding gap could make the difference. (Polling +0%; D/R funding ratio 81%; $14 per capita)
Let’s do this!
We don’t need to tell you how important it is to flip the Senate in November. Although there are many close races currently, we think these three candidates give motivated Dem donors the best chance to have an impact in the final weeks before Election Day. So, don’t delay — send a few bucks to them today!
For more details on methods, see our prior post. New fundraising and polling data were obtained on 10/4/20 for this analysis.