We’ve said it before, we’ll say it again: state legislatures are WHERE IT’S AT for Dems in 2022 and beyond when it comes to protecting the environment and the rights of women, voters, LGBTQ+ folks, … the list goes on and on.
In this post we’re focused on specifically on Michigan. We’ll dig into the particular reasons to focus on the Great Lakes State’s state legislature, and then explain why the 10 specific races we identified in our analysis are worthy of Dems’ support this fall. And whenever you’re ready, just click on button and donate via our handy one-click ActBlue page!
The MI state legislature landscape
The GOP holds slim majorities in both chambers of the MI state legislature (58-52 in the House, 22-16 in the Senate), and all seats are up for grabs this year. That means it would take just 3-4 flips in either chamber to bring it over to Team Blue’s column.
That’s important for its own sake, but also because of what’s going on up-ballot. Races in Michigan for Governor, Secretary of State, and US House are hotly contested, and every additional door-knock for Dems running for state legislature is a potential “triple/quadruple word score”:
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has single-handedly blocked a Republican trifecta since 2018, and is slightly favored by several pundits over her Trumpy opponent. But this is still a close contest, and every bit of GOTV we can drive via support for state legislature candidates will help Whitmer seal the deal in November.
In the Secretary of State contest, incumbent Dem Jocelyn Benson is fighting off a challenge from a Trump-supported election denier who could wreak havoc on the state’s contests in 2024.
And finally, our analysis (check it out!) found that support of key Dem state legislative candidates could also make a difference in 5 of the state’s 10 US House districts (2 hold, 3 flip).
Finally, it’s important to note that state leg races typically raise less than 5% of donations to House candidates in competitive contests. That means your money has much more “bang for buck” when you donate to these down-ballot campaigns.
The candidates and Blue Ripple’s data analysis
We found several good opportunities for Dem donors to make a meaningful difference in the MI state legislature in 2022. Starting with DLCC’s endorsement list and filtering the candidates using Blue Ripple’s demographic model and a cursory fundraising analysis, we landed on 10 high-priority candidates for Dems to support.
Here’s the list of our top donation recs in the MI state legislature, with graphs from our demographic model below. (Districts are in yellow circles; reference is all MI state legislative districts. For a more technical discussion of how Blue Ripple’s model works, see this methods post.)
HD-38: 51% D in Blue Ripple’s demographic model; 53% D by historical models. In this race for an open seat, Dem Joey Andrews, an AFL-CIO policy analyst, is evenly matched in fundraising with his GOP opponent.
HD-46: 49% D (Blue Ripple); 51% (historical). If Dem candidate Maurice Imhoff wins this open seat, the 20-year-old will be the state’s youngest state rep ever. So far, he’s within striking distance financially in a race where fundraising has been light overall.
HD-54: 55% D (Blue Ripple); 49% (historical). In this open-seat race between two businesswomen and political newcomers, Dem Shadia Martini and her GOP opponent have both had relatively even and credible fundraising to date.
HD-58: 55% D (Blue Ripple); 49% (historical). Nate Shannon, a two-term Dem incumbent from HD-25, is looking to stave off a decently-funded GOP challenger. This district has substantial overlap with MI-10, where our model suggests Dems could make major inroads if former judge Carl Marlinga can overtake his well-known and better-funded GOP opponent.
HD-81: 53% D (Blue Ripple); 54% (historical). Two-term HD-76 incumbent Dem Rachel Hood is well-funded, but facing a credible GOP challenge from a former member of Michigan’s lower chamber. This district overlaps significantly with MI-03, where Dem Hilary Scholten is slightly favored by most pundits (and our model) to oust the current Republican office-holder.
HD-84: 53% D (Blue Ripple); 52% (historical). Dem Carol Glanville is in good fundraising shape in this tight contest, thanks in part to leftover funds from her special election win in May in nearby HD-74. This district has significant overlap with MI-03 (see above).
SD-11: 59% D (Blue Ripple); 53% (historical). Dem Veronica Klinefelt, who has two decades of experience as an elected local government official, is seeking to unset a Republican incumbent here. This district has substantial overlap with MI-10 (see above).
SD-12: 56% D (Blue Ripple); 49% (historical). This contest for an open seat is a face-off between two current legislators in the state’s lower chamber. Dem Kevin Hertel has the fundraising edge so far, but donations have been robust to both campaigns.
SD-30: 52% D (Blue Ripple); 49% (historical). Fundraising for Dem David LaGrand, a current MI House member, has been neck-in-neck so far with that of the GOP incumbent he’s seeking to unseat. This district overlaps significantly with MI-03 (see above).
SD-35: 50% D (Blue Ripple); 52% (historical). Dem Kristen McDonald Rivet, a nonprofit advisor and elected city official, is closely matched for fundraising with her GOP opponent in their race for this open seat. This district has strong overlap with MI-08, where Dem Dan Kildee (incumbent in MI-05) is in a tight race for the seat currently held by his party-mate Elissa Slotkin.
Image: Destination Ann Arbor