Arizona is in the national spotlight for voting rights and election shenanigans – which makes control of the state legislature more crucial than ever. Plus, the state hosts key up-ballot races for Governor and Senate this year.
In this post we’ll dig into why state leg in the Great Canyon State is worthy of Dems’ support this fall, and then introduce the 9 races we identified as highest-priority in our analysis. And whenever you’re ready, just click on button and donate via our handy one-click ActBlue page!
The AZ state legislature landscape
All seats are up for grabs in 2022 in the AZ state legislature, where the GOP holds narrow majorities in both chambers (31-28 (1 vacancy) in the House, 16-14 in the Senate). That means we are just a handful of wins away from flipping one or both chambers over to control by Team Blue.
And that would be a huge deal, especially because the Governor’s race is also up for grabs this year. Incumbent Republican Doug Ducey is term-limited, so the 2022 contest pits Dem Katie Hobbs, the current Secretary of State, against a crazy Trumpist. With Arizona teetering on the brink of dismantling basic voting safeguards, winning even one chamber in the state legislature would be a bulwark against election shenanigans in 2024 … and a GOP trifecta would be a disaster.
Arizona is also holding several other important contests this fall, so there are ample opportunities for state legislature candidates’ GOTV efforts to create up-ballot “triple/quadruple word scores”. The highest profile of these is Dem Mark Kelly’s re-election bid in the Senate, but don’t forget the races for Secretary of State, where the GOP candidate is an extremist Oath Keeper (is that an oxymoron?), and in several tight US House contests that seem winnable by Dems.
Finally, it’s important to note that state leg races typically raise less than 5% of donations to House candidates in competitive contests. That means your money has much more “bang for buck” when you donate to these down-ballot campaigns.
The candidates and Blue Ripple’s data analysis
We found several good opportunities for Dem donors to make a meaningful difference in the AZ state legislature in 2022. Starting with DLCC’s endorsement list and filtering the candidates using Blue Ripple’s demographic model and a cursory fundraising analysis, we landed on 9 high-priority candidates for Dems to support.
Here’s the Sawbuck list of our top donation recs in the AZ state legislature, with Blue Ripple’s demographic model graphs below. (Districts are in yellow circles; reference is all AZ state legislative districts. For a more technical discussion of how Blue Ripple’s model works, see this methods post.
Please note two unique things about the AZ state legislature. First, the district boundaries are the same in the upper and lower chamber; we refer to them as “LD” (legislative district) in the notes and just “upper” in the charts. Second, Arizonians elect two candidates to each House district (from a field of 3-4 candidates).
LD-02 (2 candidates): 51% D in Blue Ripple’s demographic model; 47% D by historical models. In the House, Dem incumbent Judy Schwiebert is well-funded, but risks being edged out by a hard right GOP incumbent and a poorly-funded election denier who might be able to ride his coattails. In the Senate, newcomer Dem Jeanne Casteen, executive director of a group that fights for chuch-state separation in Arizona, has a fundraising lead against a current AZ House member. This district overlaps with AZ-01, a US House flip opportunity for Dems.
LD-04 (2 candidates): 50% D (Blue Ripple); 48% (historical). Dem Laura Terech has raised decent funds against her two relatively moderate GOP opponents, but they are spending hard and could win both House seats unless we give Terech a boost. The tight Senate race pits Dem incumbent Christine Marsh against a GOP incumbent. This district overlaps with AZ-01, a US House flip opportunity for Dems.
LD-09 (3 candidates): 55% D (Blue Ripple); 51% (historical). The Dems running for House, Seth Blattman and Lorena Austin, and Senate, Eva Burch, are all currently outpacing their GOP opponents in fundraising. However, all three merit strong support, as there is significant overlap with AZ-04, a US House district where the Dem incumbent needs help on defense.
LD-13 (2 candidates): 54% D (Blue Ripple); 49% (historical). Dem incumbent Jennifer Pawlik is facing two well-funded GOP candidates, including a conspiracy theorist, who threaten to nab both House seats. In the Senate, Dem Cindy Hans is far behind in fundraising, but outside support has kept her in the game versus the GOP incumbent.We found several good opportunities for Dem donors to make a meaningful difference in the MI state legislature in 2022. Starting with DLCC’s endorsement list and filtering the candidates using Blue Ripple’s demographic model and a cursory fundraising analysis, we landed on 10 high-priority candidates for Dems to support.
Image: National Parks Service