From state-level abortion restrictions to infringements on voting rights to the threat of “alternate electors” in 2024, it’s clear that Dems need to pay more attention to state legislatures in 2022 and beyond. We’ve focused here on PA specifically, and identified 6 candidates we think are particularly worthy of Dems’ support this cycle.
In this post, we’ll dig into the particular reasons to focus on Pennsylvania, and then discuss the 6 specific races we identified in our analysis. Whenever you’re ready, please click on the button and donate via our handy one-click ActBlue page!
The PA state legislature landscape
Strategically, support for state legislature candidates provides an additional GOTV push for up-ballot races. Contests in the Keystone State this fall for Governor, US Senate, and US House are hotly contested, and every additional door-knock on behalf of Dem candidates is a potential “quadruple word score” for all races. And state legislature races typically raise less than 5% of donations to House candidates, so your $10 has much more “bang for buck” for these campaigns.
Seat gains this year would also move Dems closer to gaining control of the PA state legislature down the road, although it's unlikely that we’ll net a majority in either chamber this cycle. Republicans currently control both chambers by fairly wide margins (89D / 113R with one vacancy in the House; 21D / 28R (plus one GOP-caucusing independent) in the Senate) but are thankfully pretty far from hitting supermajority (⅔) thresholds. So although there’s a long-term strategic value to giving to Pennsylvania State House and Senate candidates in 2022, the upcoming election probably won’t radically remake the state legislature in either direction.
The candidates and Blue Ripple’s data analysis
In our analysis, we found several good opportunities for Dem donors to make a meaningful difference in the PA state legislature in 2022. We started with DLCC’s endorsement list and filtered the candidates using our demographic model and a cursory fundraising analysis to land on 6 high-priority candidates for Dems to support. For a more technical discussion of how Blue Ripple’s model works, see this methods post.
Below we discuss our top donation recs in the PA state legislature, followed by the accompanying demographic model graphs. (In the figures, districts are in yellow circles; reference is all PA state legislative districts.)
HD-88: 54% D in Blue Ripple’s demographic model; 48% D by historical models. The seven-term incumbent Republican here is lightly funded, creating an opening for Sara Agerton, a current borough council member. Despite its somewhat low racial diversity, the district appears quite Dem-friendly on other demographic measures. HD-88 overlaps with US House district PA-10, which Blue Ripple’s model rates much closer (47% D) than most pundits’ safe R rating would suggest.
HD-142: 53% D (Blue Ripple); 53% (historical). Journalist Mark Moffa should have a good chance of flipping this open R seat, but his GOP opponent is credible and mounting a decent fundraising effort. Like HD-88, the district’s low racial diversity seems to be balanced by other Blue-leaning demographic factors. HD-142 overlaps with US House district PA-01, which Blue Ripple’s model sees as a toss-up (51% D) despite many pundits’ more R-leaning forecasts.
HD-144: 54% D (Blue Ripple); 52% D (historical). Local Clerk of Courts Brian Munroe is receiving strong donor support in his quest to unseat a relatively under-funded GOP incumbent. Blue Ripple’s model suggests the district is well within Team Blue’s reach on key demographic factors. Like HD-142, this district is also a “double word score” with US House district PA-01.
HD-160: 49% D (Blue Ripple); 51% D (historical). Transportation planner Cathy Spahr is running a credible campaign to oust a one-term GOP incumbent who has had anemic fundraising to date. The high college grad fraction among White voters should boost Dems’ chances in HD-160, although other demographic factors make it more of a toss-up.
SD-14: 58% D (Blue Ripple); 55% D (historical). This race between school board member Nick Miller and a GOP local official has garnered outsized attention, despite SD-14’s strong Dem lean. The demographics look promising for Team Blue to flip this open R seat, although the low college grad fraction among Whites is a cause of potential concern, and fundraising has been fairly even. Importantly, SD-14 overlaps with US House district PA-07, where incumbent Dem Susan Wild is trying to win her toss-up race.
SD-24: 46% D (Blue Ripple); 50% D (historical). Political newbie Jill Dennin is mounting a close fundraising challenge to a current PA state rep for this open R seat. On demographic grounds, the district looks similar to HD-160: a legit toss-up with a high college grad percentage among White voters that could give Dems the edge.
Image via Belt Magazine.