Even though it will take weeks to finish counting all the ballots, there’s still a chance that Biden could be declared the winner outright on November 3rd — if we can win key early-counting states with lots of Electoral College votes.
Many analysts are predicting weeks of uncertainty after Election Day as absentee and mail-in ballots are counted by frazzled, understaffed local offices. A particularly scary scenario: irresponsible news outlets may “call” states for Trump based on early tallies, but later shift them to Biden once all the mail ballots are tabulated. Barton Gelman’s long, troubling piece in The Atlantic outlines the likely ensuing chaos.
But there’s a slim but real chance we can avoid this chaos. Several large toss-up states are processing mail-in ballots well in advance of Election Day, so there’s a decent chance that by the wee hours they’ll have complete results. If enough of these states go blue, the election would be definitively called for Biden on Tuesday evening, or at least before your Wednesday morning coffee.
In this post, we outline a plausible scenario for how this could happen, and recommend 7 candidates to support (4 House, 3 Senate) who will boost the chance of an “early win” for Biden, besides aiding key down-ballot Dems.
Psssst — once you’ve read this piece, please also check out our other “down the home stretch” donation recs. We’ve analyzed how you can help flip the Senate, hold the House, safeguard election integrity, win the White House if the choice devolves to Congress, and get quadruple-bang-for-buck in GA and TX.
Contents of this post:
How Biden could be declared the winner on E-day
Key states for an early call
Our 7 donation recs to help Biden win early on Nov. 3rd
How Biden could be declared the winner on E-day
On E-day, election offices will be overwhelmed by vetting and processing a huge number of mail-in ballots. But the key thing to know is that several states — including some big and important ones — will start processing and/or counting mail-in ballots well before November 3rd. In principle, this means they could be “caught up” with the backlog on E-day, and ready to declare a victor that evening or early the next morning. And if those states include enough toss-up Electoral College votes to put Biden over 270, that’s the whole enchilada!
So, this boils down to a simple math question: How many toss-up EC votes are at play in early-processing states? And, are there enough for Joe to win outright? It turns out that the answers are “yes” and “yes”.
Key states for an early call
Before we analyze the states in detail, let’s first figure out how many EC votes Biden needs to shore up on E-day to be crowned the victor. We used 270towin to make a map based on some conservative assumptions:
Any state where Biden is 10 or more points ahead we called for Dems, and assumed it won’t be seriously contested in any way, even if the full results are delayed.
Any state where Trump is at least 1 point ahead we called for the GOP, under the assumption that even if they deliver results for Biden early, they’ll be tied up in litigation for days or weeks after E-day.
The rest (Trump +1 to Biden +10) we called legit “toss-ups”.
Under that set of assumptions, we used data from fivethirtyeight.com (using their “snake chart” on 10/19/2020) to generate the map below — it shows 12 toss-ups (including ME-2 and NE-2), accounting for 153 EV votes, of which Biden is 54 short of being declared the victor on E-day:
Now, let’s see when these 12 toss-ups are likely to deliver results (the NYT has a nice summary). Because we are trying to engineer an “early call” for Biden, we focused on the ones that (a) start processing at least a week before E-day, AND (b) require that all ballots be cast/received by the evening of Nov. 3rd. Applying those criteria to our 12 toss-ups yields only five states or EC districts that matter in this scenario. We’ve listed them below in descending order of odds for Biden (via 538’s consensus, as above), along with their EC votes:
| STATE/DISTRICT | POLLING | EC VOTES |
| NE-2 | Biden +5.2% | 1 |
| FL | Biden +3.4% | 29 |
| AZ | Biden +3.1% | 11 |
| ME-2 | Biden +0.4% | 1 |
| GA | Biden +0.2% | 16 |
Lo and behold, those five states/districts add up to 58 EC votes — which is more than 54, so in theory, Biden can be declared the victor on E-day! So the obvious next question is: how can we help by making strategic donations in the final few weeks?
Our 7 donation recs to help Biden win early on Nov. 3rd
You could certainly justify supporting Democratic party activities in all 5 of these states/districts, but we focused our attention on AZ, FL, and GA. They’re clearly the biggest prizes, and with 56 total EC votes in play, they’re enough to push Biden over the hump.
Within those states, we included both competitive House and Senate races to get double- and triple-impact. Under normal circumstances, we’d focus on House (and maybe even state legislature) races because they provide greater bang for buck. But in the “early win” scenario, we think there’s a good case for supporting Senate candidates as well, because they’ll be focusing on boosting Dem turnout state-wide, even (or perhaps especially) in Dem strongholds that may not be as important for the House, but could be key for winning the state’s Electoral College votes for Biden. So even though the Senate races are highly-funded, a few extra bucks could have outsized impact on sealing up an early win for Biden.
Our final list of recommendations includes 4 House candidates and 3 Senate candidates — we feel supporting them will help boost the odds that Biden can be declared the winner outright on Election Day. They’re listed here in alphabetical order, along with the most recent high-quality polling data (“B” or higher) via 538:
Carolyn Bourdeaux (GA-7) is on the cusp of winning this open seat north of Atlanta, which is one of the most closely-watched Dem pickup opportunities in the country. She’s also a Blue Ripple House pick. (+3% as of 6/20)
Alan Cohn (FL-15) has turned this open seat between Tampa and Orlando into a prime pick-up opportunity thanks to stellar fundraising and execution. He’s also a Blue Ripple “House decides” scenario pick. (-7% as of 9/6)
Mark Kelly (AZ Sen) has steadily expanded his lead since the fall in what has become one of the Dems’ best chances to flip a Senate seat. (+6% as of 10/18)
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26), who narrowly ousted a GOP incumbent to flip this Miami-area district in 2018, faces a tough challenge in her first re-election campaign. (no high-quality polling data)
Jon Ossoff (GA Sen) is in a tight race for this open (formerly R) seat that’s raking in media attention and donations from both sides. He’s also a Blue Ripple Senate pick. (even as of 10/19)
Halal Tipernini (AZ-6) is neck-and-neck in this “sleeper” pickup opportunity in the Scottsdale area that’s flown largely under the national media radar. She’s also a Blue Ripple House pick. (+4%/-2% (2 polls) as of 9/26)
Raphael Warnock (GA Sen — special) has emerged in recent weeks as not just the lead Dem in this race, but the favorite to win the all-but-certain top-two runoff in January. (+4% as of 10/19)
Let’s do this!
This is a stressful time — and we feel it too. We’re optimistic that Biden will prevail, and Dems will win the Senate, retain the House, and notch gains in many key state legislatures on November 3rd — but we’re also terrified of the unrest, confusion, and shenanigans that could ensue in the days and weeks after Election Day.
Many of us have given to many candidates up and down the ballot this cycle, and we’re exhausted and tapped out. But if you have a little gas left in the tank, we think doubling down on trying to deliver an “early win” for Biden on E-day is a good approach. So, if you’re looking to donate a few more dollars this month, please consider focusing on these races. We can do this — let’s finish the job!
Image by AnnaliseArt on Pixabay