If you get your political info from national mass media, you probably think the only races that matter are President, Senate, and House — and that if you live in a deep-blue state, there’s little you can do to move the country leftward. But that’s a huge mistake!
State-level races have a big impact on voter turnout, enfranchisement, redistricting, and fair elections — which are critical issues for progressives in the long-term, especially with a Republican in the White House. So if you want to reshape the national electoral map in the coming decades, it’s important to look beyond the national contests, invest some time and money in “down-ballot” races beyond your home state, and spread the word!
Learn about key races in KY, LA, and MS this November
Learn about the huge VA legislative election this fall
This post covers three topics:
1. General principles – Why state races matter to out-of-state progressives
2. Key state races with elections this November
3. Ways to take action
Why state races matter to out-of-state progressives
At the local level, most of us don’t have the bandwidth to care about every mayoral and school board election across the country (although maybe we should!). But some state races are crucial for progressives, because of how they’ll affect the national electoral map in the long term:
Governor, state legislators, and/or state court judges are key players in many states’ redistricting efforts. All 50 states will redraw the lines after the upcoming census, and the degree of gerrymandering will have a huge impact on state and national politics through 2030. Each state has its own Byzantine process (summarized here and here) that includes elected officials and/or appointed boards.
Secretary of State may sound like a boring office, but the 2018 Georgia elections left little doubt of the office-holder’s outsized impact on poll hours and locations, defining eligible voters, and adjudicating contested ballots. Similarly, even though Louisiana recently expanded voting rights to folks on probation and parole, the Republican Secretary of State has been slow-walking efforts to publicize the new rules and ease registration.
State ballot initiatives were a major front in the battle for voting rights in 2018, when eight states decided issues like voter ID requirements, “motor voter” and election day registration, and enfranchisement of former felons.
Bottom line – progressives need to pay attention to five types of state-level “races that matter” because of their outsized impact on the national political landscape: Governor, Secretary of State, state legislature, state courts, and ballot initiatives.
Key state races in 2019
Of the 11 states holding elections this fall in one or more of the categories above, we think 4 are particularly critical because of their impact on gerrymandering and voters’ rights: Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia. We’ve written detailed posts on them here and here, including donation recommendations and links.
For those of you who want more details, here’s a summary of statewide happenings in November, 2019 (via Ballotpedia) — see the end of the post for footnotes:
| STATE | ELECTION(S) | BLUE RIPPLE PRIORITY |
| CO | Ballot measures (taxes, sports betting) | Low |
| KS | Ballot measure (census adjustment) | Low* |
| KY | Governor, Sec'y of State, judges^ | High |
| LA | Governor, Sec'y of State, legislature, judges, ballot measures | High |
| ME | Ballot measure (disability rights) | Low |
| MS | Governor, Sec'y of State, legislature~ | High |
| NJ | Legislature, ballot measure (taxes) | Low+ |
| PA | Ballot measure (crime victims' rights), judges | Low% |
| TX | Ballot measures (various; unrelated to voting)^ | Low |
| VA | Legislature | High |
| WA | Ballot measures (various; unrelated to voting)^ | Low |
Action – 3 ways to make a difference between now and November ‘19
1. Donate to candidates: Fundraising tends to be lighter in state races than Federal ones – so it’s likely that every dollar you give in these elections will have an outsized impact. Whenever possible, we’re linking our posts to consolidated ActBlue lists and/or campaigns’ individual donation pages.
We’ve divided our recommendations into 2 posts — one covering KY, LA, and MS; and the other covering the VA legislature, which is super-important. Read, donate, and spread the word!
Learn about key races in KY, LA, and MS this November
Learn about the huge VA legislative election this fall
2. Stay informed and tell your friends: Now that you know which elections to follow in 2019, staying up-to-date is the first step. Although state races sometimes get covered by the national press, local reporters are the main eyes on state politics. So, add some regional players to your media diet, and share key articles on these races with your friends and family. In the run-up to the 2019 elections, start with outlets in Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia.
3. Support local journalism: Sharing articles is caring — but subscribing is even better! For about $100, you could help keep the lights on at a local paper. See the links above to get lists of options in key states with 2019 votes.
Want to read more from Blue Ripple? Visit our website, sign up for email updates, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. Folks interested in our data and modeling efforts should also check out our Github page.
Notes to the table:
* Kansas’s ballot initiative would end the current practice of adjusting the Census to (a) exclude non-resident military personnel and students, and (b) include resident military personnel and students in their counties of residence. Although this generally affects voters’ rights, we have found scant information to help us formulate an opinion on it. Given the lack of available information and the measure’s broad bipartisan support in the Kansas legislature, we have deprioritized it. Details here and here.
^ Also includes some state-level races that we deprioritized due to lack of broad impact (e.g., special elections in individual state legislative districts).
~ In Mississippi, although the Governor has no authority over redistricting (details here), we still believe the race is worthy of progressives’ involvement and have highlighted it. In contrast, we have deprioritized the state’s legislative races, because Republicans hold such a commanding majority in both the Senate (31-18) and the House (74-44).
+ Democrats hold a 54-26 majority in New Jersey’s legislature that experts do not believe is vulnerable, so we have deprioritized this election. Details here.
% Judicial elections are for lower courts, which do not play a role in redistricting, so we have deprioritized them. Details here and here.
Header image via Colorado Politics.