In the battle against gerrymandering, Virginia is ground zero in 2019 – the state legislature will re-draw district lines after the census, all 140 seats are up for grabs this November, and both chambers are split almost 50/50.
Time is running out for progressives to impact this crucial 2019 election. We analyzed prior results and fundraising stats and identified 17 high-impact races where your donation could make a big difference in these final months. Read on for our analysis, or just jump to our consolidated donation link (below) to give right now!
Contents of this post:
Why Virginia matters for progressives
How we identified high-impact races in the VA legislature
Our recommendations of VA races you should support
Further info (for diehards!)
1. Why Virginia matters for progressives
2019 and 2020 are big years for gerrymandering, because district boundaries will be redrawn after the 2020 census — see our prior post (here) for background. In Virginia, the state legislature remakes the map – so the party with control after the upcoming election will set the map through 2030. (The governor retains veto power in the state.)
Today, Republicans narrowly control the state’s Senate (21-19) and House of Delegates (51-49), and the state has been getting bluer. So it’s entirely within Democrats’ reach to flip both chambers and gain complete control over the Virginia’s legislative branch — which would help ensure fair redistricting for the next decade, and protect voters’ rights in 2020.
(Besides Virginia, there are key 2019 races that will impact redistricting in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi – see our post on those races for details.)
2. How we identified high-impact races
Using data from the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project’s publicly accessible databases (here, here), we identified the 97 contested races in 2019 (28 Senate, 69 HOD), and prioritized “close” races in which the Democrats have captured 40-59% of both total fundraising this cycle (as of 8/15/19) and votes in the last election. This eliminated likely “blowouts” (in both directions), so we could focus on candidates for whom we reckon extra donations down the home stretch could make an outsized difference. Based on deeper research (see end of post for references), we refined our list, and added some additional races that didn’t quite meet those criteria, but we felt are worthy “stretch goals” for Dems this year.
3. Our list of recommendations
Here are the 17 Democrats running for office in Virginia (13 in the House of Delegates, 4 in the Senate) we think are most crucial for progressives to support in the upcoming election.
HD 10 – Wendy Gooditis (incumbent): In 2017, Gooditis narrowly beat a 3-term Republican incumbent in this purple district. But her former opponent is back for a rematch this year, and up $70K in fundraising so far.
HD 18 – Laura Galante: Political newcomer Galante has a fundraising lead so far over the Republican incumbent, which could help her drive Democratic turnout in this typically red district.
HD 20 – Jennifer Lewis: Fundraising for this open seat has been light so far (under $100K combined) in this red district, so donations to Lewis could have an outsized impact in this longer-shot race.
HD 21 – Kelly Convirs-Fowler (incumbent): Newcomer Fowler handily bested a four-term Republican incumbent in 2017, but she needs help staving off a strong fundraising challenge in this lean-D district.
HD 27 – Larry Barnett: The second time may be the charm for Barnett, who lost to the current incumbent by just 124 votes in 2017.
HD 39 – Vivian Watts (incumbent): Longtime incumbent Watts hasn’t faced a challenge since 2011, but she may feel pressure from her anti-choice opponent, who has outraised her so far.
HD 50 – Lee Carter (incumbent): Carter, a “self-described socialist,” won this seat narrowly in 2017, and he could use help this year to hold on to it and fend off a credible challenger.
HD 56 – Juanita Jo Matkins: Fundraising has been low to date in this red district, and Matkins remains in striking range of the Republican incumbent.
HD 72 – Schuyler VanValkenburg (incumbent): Dems need to hold this historically purple district, and VanValkenburg may get a boost from its recent redistricting.
HD 73 – Rodney Willett: With the Democratic incumbent running for State Senate, Republicans are working overtime to win back this swing-district seat.
HD 83 – Nancy Guy: Redistricting should help the Dems in this historically red district, and Guy has virtually matched the incumbent in fundraising so far.
HD 85 – Alex Askew: The Democratic incumbent is retiring, and Askew is running for the open seat against the former Republican office-holder, who lost it in 2017 by just 389 votes. One pundit calls this “the toughest seat for Democrats to hold this year.”
HD 94 – Shelly Simonds: Simonds is mounting a strong re-challenge to the Republican incumbent, who narrowly beat her in 2017 in a pick-a-name-from-a-bowl tie-breaker.
SD 7 – Cheryl Turpin: The retirement of a veteran Republican gives a seat-flipping opening to Turpin, who currently leads in fundraising.
SD 10 – Ghazala Hashmi: A pro-gun Republican incumbent narrowly held his seat in this blue-trending district in 2015, but he’s likely vulnerable if Hashmi can close the fundraising gap.
SD 13 – John Bell: Bell has outraised his opponent by almost 2:1 in this open contest, making this blue district one of Democrats’ best chances to pick up an additional Senate seat.
SD 28 – Qasim Rashid: Although this district is a longer shot for Dems, Rashid is the first serious challenger to the Republican incumbent since 2007.
Now, it’s time to take action! We’ve set up a single site where you can easily donate to all of these candidates (or pick and choose among them) – click below to donate through our 2019 Virginia page on ActBlue.
4. FURTHER INFO (FOR DIEHARDS!)
For more info about the upcoming VA election, check out the following sources, which we used extensively to refine and vet our recommendations:
Blue Virginia, as the name implies, has posted some of the most comprehensive analyses of the state’s upcoming elections.
Political scientist Rachel Bitecofer’s 2018 election model was a standout for its predictive power. Her detailed preview of the VA election is excellent, as is her Twitter feed.
Respected independent analyst Chaz Nuttycombe (“Yes, this is my real name,” per his Twitter bio) has made comprehensive predictions of the upcoming Virginia races (e.g., here and here)
On DC Geekery, self-described “politics geek” Keith Ivey posted a comprehensive summary of various pundits’ calls in Old Dominion.
Flippable.org is focusing on 20 Virginia legislative races to turn the state blue.
Want to read more from Blue Ripple? Visit our website, sign up for email updates, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. Folks interested in our data and modeling efforts should also check out our Github page.
Header image via Tenth Amendment Center.