E-Day is rapidly approaching! We’re in the last weeks when your donation could help push Kamala and down-ballot candidates over the finish line.
With that in mind, we’ve compiled a list of recommendations so your donations can make the greatest difference in November.
Let’s gooooooooooo!
In this post:
Quick intro: How we suggest you prioritize your donations
Our lists:
List #1: Blue Ripple’s top 11 State Leg picks
List #2: State Leg super-lists
List #3: Important organizations in key states
Concluding words of hype and hope!
Quick intro: How we suggest you prioritize your donations
As we’ve said before, we recommend that you focus your donations on State Legislature races for 3 reasons. First, they’re hugely important in deciding state-level issues like gun control, voting rights, and abortion rights. Second, they’re lightly funded so the bang-per-buck is high. And finally, although data are scant, we’re persuaded that supporting State Leg races can, at the margins, help up-ballot candidates.
At the same time, all of us want to do what we can to support Kamala and Dems running in competitive US House races.
That’s why we used a few complementary factors to make our suggestions for donations:
We focused on states where control of the legislative branch is important in its own right and the state is high-priority for the Presidency.
Within that list of states, we focused on state leg seats that are close but winnable by Dems based on demographic factors. (Recall: our model tries to find places where there’s an underlying pro-Dem tendency that GOTV efforts could convert into votes and wins.)
When possible, we prioritized “multi-word score” opportunities where the state leg district overlaps with a competitive U.S. House race where the Dem will benefit from GOTV support.
Finally, when the option arose, we favored “pickups” (Dems trying to flip R seats) over defensive plays (Dems trying to hold their seats), because we believe Team Blue has the wind at our backs right now based on how national polls are trending.
So, let’s get to it!
LIST #1: Blue Ripple’s 11 top State Leg picks for November 2024
When the model finished cranking and the dust settled, we landed on 11 state leg picks across Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In each of them, we’ve indicated our modeled Dem vote-share based on demographics compared with the historical Dem vote share. Support them all with our handy one-click ActBlue link (using the big button below)!
Arizona SD-2: Current lower chamber Rep, Dem Judy Schwiebert, is looking to move up a level. She’s challenging incumbent pro-life stalwart Shawnna Bolick, who is desperately trying to cover her tracks by flipping her position. In our model the district is 54% D, +7% vs. historical. It’s 60% within US House AZ-1, seen as one of the most promising Dem flips in the state.
Arizona SD-4: Incumbent Dem Christine Marsh is being challenged by Carine Werner, a GOP school board member in Scottsdale who has supported a far-right takeover of the curriculum. We see AZ-4 as 51% D, +3% vs. historical. This district is wholly within US House AZ-1 (see above).
Michigan HD-55: Dem Trevis Harrold is challenging incumbent Mark Tisdel. Our math says the district is 57% D, +8% vs. historical. It’s 97% within US House MI-10, where former judge Carl Marlinga is mounting a rematch to unseat incumbent GOP Rep. John James.
Michigan HD-57: Dem prosecutor Aisha Farooqi is challenging incumbent Tom Kuhn, who voted against the state’s pro-choice Reproductive Health Act this year. We think this district is 57% D, +8% vs. historical. This district is 68% within US House MI-10 (see above).
Michigan HD-58: Incumbent Dem Nate Shannon is being challenged by Ron Robinson. Our model projects the district is 56% D vs. 49% historical. MI-HD-58 is 100% within US House MI-10 (see above).
Michigan HD-62: Music teacher Michelle Levine-Woodman is challenging incumbent Alicia St. Germaine. We believe this is a 55% D district, +6% over historical. The district is 93% within US House MI-10 (see above).
Michigan HD-68: The Dem incumbent in MI-HD-50, Tim Sneller, was planning to run for this seat when he died of heart disease shortly before the primary. His friend Matt Schlinker, who’s worked in the auto industry for almost 50 years, jumped in, getting enough votes as a write-in to challenge incumbent David Martin. Our model sees this as 50% D (+4% vs. historical). 94% of the district is in US House MI-8, a tight contest for the seat held by retiring six-term Dem Dan Kildee.
Nevada HD-2: Small business owner Ron Nelsen is running an underdog campaign to challenge incumbent Heidi Kasama for this Las Vegas-area seat. In our model this district comes in at 53% D, +4% vs. historical. The district is wholly within US House NV-3, where incumbent Dem Susie Lee is battling to hang on for another term.
North Carolina SD-4: Dem Raymond Smith Jr., who formerly served two terms in the lower chamber, is seeking to oust incumbent Buck Newton. Our model says this district is 51% D versus 48% historical. NC-SD-4 is 100% within US House NC-1, the state’s only legit toss-up race, where Dem incumbent Don Davis is trying to hold on to his seat.
Pennsylvania HD-28: In this open (previously R) seat, a top lieutenant to the state’s district attorney, Dem Bill Petulla, is taking on software engineer Jeremy Shaffer, a 2-time loser in contests for the lower chamber. Blue Ripple calculates this district as 52% D (+6% versus historical). The district is wholly within US House PA-17, a seat currently held by Dem incumbent Chris Deluzio.
Pennsylvania HD-44: Hadley Haas is challenging GOP incumbent Valerie Gaydos, who made news for sponsoring a ban on trans girls in sports. Our model says the district is 51% D (+2% versus historical). This Pittsburgh-area district is entirely within US House PA-17 (see above).
Pennsylvania HD-88: Social worker Sara Agerton is back to re-challenge long-time incumbent Sheryl Delozier after a 55-45 loss in 2022. We think this district is 54% D, +6% over historical. PA-HD-88 is 100% within US House PA-10, where Dem Janelle Stelson is looking to unseat GOP incumbent Scott Perry.
LIST #2: State Leg super-lists
If you have a little extra dough to spread around, then our next recommendation is to more broadly help Dems win State Leg races in nine states identified as high-priority by the States Project. Fortunately for all of us, activist Charles Gaba has put together ActBlue slates that direct money to all the Dem candidates in each of them. Click each state’s name to go directly to its ActBlue page:
Arizona: Republicans have a one-seat majority in both chambers, so we could plausibly flip one or both.
Kansas: We can break Republicans’ supermajority by flipping just two seats in the House.
Michigan: We need to protect the 4-seat majority in the House that we won in 2022.
Minnesota: We have a trifecta, but the margin is only one seat in the Senate and six in the House.
Nevada: We are within one Senate seat of building a veto-proof Dem supermajority in both chambers.
New Hampshire: We need to flip two House seats to gain control and flip two seats in the Senate to be able to block right-wing legislation.
North Carolina: We can break Republicans’ supermajority by flipping just one House seat.
Pennsylvania: We need to protect our one-seat majority in the House, and if we flip just three seats in the Senate we can even up that chamber.
Wisconsin: We have just a two-seat buffer in the Assembly against a Republican supermajority, but with new, fairer maps and all seats up for grabs this year, Dems could plausibly flip 15 seats and actually gain control.
LIST #3: Important organizations in key states
Finally, if you’re still wondering what else you could do, we’ve got you covered. Over the course of our travels and conversations, we’ve been made aware of many great organizations that are running GOTV and issue-related efforts in individual states. From our cursory research we think they are worth a look and would be worthy beneficiaries of your generous donations. Visit their individual webpages to make donations!
Engage Miami (FL)
You Can Vote (NC)
Plan Action (NV)
One Pennsylvania (PA)
Mi Familia Vota (TX)
Wisconsin Voices (WI)
Concluding words of hype and hope
If you’re anything like us, you’re cautiously optimistic about November but still basically terrified. We get it and we feel you. But we think doing something will help take the edge off. And unless you live in or near a key state, the main thing you can do over the next few weeks is support key races where last-minute donations could make the difference for Dems in State Leg seats, U.S. House races, and the Presidency.
So, let’s do this! Whether you can give $5 or $50 or $500 or more, candidates and organizations on the ground can still benefit from your support. Please help them as much as you can. Team Blue, let’s gooooooooo!