If you’ve been following the 2019 elections — and you should, as we previously explained here! — you already know that Louisiana had open “jungle primaries” for state-wide offices and both chambers of the legislature, and the results for Team Blue were … not good.
Incumbent Dem governor John Bel Edwards missed his chance to win outright, so he was forced into a runoff next month with businessman Eddie Rispone.
And Republicans extended their leads in the state’s Senate and House, achieving a super-majority in the former and coming within striking distance in the latter.
But, but, but … it’s not over yet! Louisiana’s general election is November 16th! By our analysis, there are plenty of good reasons to donate your time and money in the Pelican State (yes, that’s really its nickname) in November — read on to learn about seven candidates you should support in these final days!
Contents of this post:
The current situation in Louisiana after the primaries
Our recommendations for seven LA races you should support
Further info (for diehards!)
1. THE CURRENT SITUATION IN LOUISIANA
The governor’s race has been covered ad nauseum by the national press — e.g., here. Polls throughout have given Edwards the edge overall, but it’s close.
In the Senate, Republicans picked up two seats from Democrats by winning an open Dem retirement race in the 28th, and ousting an incumbent Dem in the 38th. That gives them 27 of the 39 votes, and hence a two-thirds super-majority. Only one contested district is left to be decided (the 16th).
In the House, the tally going into the general election is 63R-33D-1I, with eight seats to be decided next month. Republicans need a seven-seat pickup to get to a two-thirds super-majority — and they have a surprisingly good chance to do so, given that Republicans currently hold five of these districts (two incumbents, three retirements).
There’s no getting around it: the odds are long against Team Blue in the Bayou. But, there are three good reasons to support key Dems in LA legislature contests in these final weeks:
Blocking the House super-majority is tough, but worth a try: We ran the numbers, and think winning a handful of the outstanding races is a long shot, but possible. Don’t give up the dream!
“Trickle-up” will help Edwards in the governor’s race: Edwards will need every possible Democratic vote to return to the governor’s mansion, and on-the-ground efforts by state legislature candidates will help give him a boost.
It’s the right move for the long run, strategically and ethically: If we care about enfranchisement, voters’ rights, and the future of the Democratic/progressive agenda, we should be mobilizing left-leaning voters everywhere, all the time, in every race — and this is no exception. (See our prior post on white working class voters for more on this theme.) Plus, many of the candidates in the remaining races are women and/or non-whites, who have historically been under-represented in Louisiana politics, and deserve our backing.
2. 7 LOUISIANA RACES YOU SHOULD SUPPORT
We focused on 10 competitive races in Louisiana (Republican vs. non-Republican): the governorship, one state Senate district, and eight districts in the House. After our initial analysis, we eliminated three House races from further consideration: HD-50 and HD-62 are between Republicans and independents, and it is hard for us to tell if the independents are more likely to join the Republicans or Democrats in supporting voters’ rights; and in HD-105, we could not adequately vet the Democratic candidate, who has no website and appears to be running a token campaign (notwithstanding his endorsement by the DLCC).
Here’s our list of the seven candidates we think you should support in Louisiana in the final weeks before the general election. Read on for details, or just click below for our consolidated ActBlue donation page! (See the end of the post for data sources.)
| Candidate (race) | Total % D in primary | Cash on hand | Cash as % of total (D+R) |
| Edwards (gov) | 47% | $3.2M | 54% |
| Thompson (SD16) | 34% | $70K | 35% |
| Johnson (HD21) | 55% | $1,100 | 32% |
| Branson (HD68) | 34% | $1,400 | 3% |
| Davis (HD70) | 38% | $23K | 26% |
| Callais (HD71) | 15% | $7,600 | 11% |
| Savoie (HD94) | 34% | $66K | 50% |
(Quick note: Some state-level Democratic candidates, particularly in red and purple states, may have views on issues like gun control and abortion that are problematic to us and many other other progressives. We highlight below key policy positions that we uncover during our limited background research, but we do not fully vet each candidate’s full platform. If this is a concern to you, please do your own diligence.)
John Bel Edwards
Governor — John Bel Edwards: Edwards remains a slim favorite after the primary. As we said before (see our earlier post), we think it’s important to support him, notwithstanding some problematic positions, because his veto pen is the last bulwark against gerrymandering by the Republican legislature.
Beverly Brooks Thompson
SD16 — Beverly Brooks Thompson: A tight race between two Republicans in this historically red district let Thompson claim the top spot in the primary, but she trails her general opponent, a longtime state House representative, in fundraising. Endorsed by DLCC.
C. Travis Johnson
HD21 — C. Travis Johnson: Johnson, a longtime Democratic strategist, led the pack in the primary in this majority-minority, long-term Dem district — but independents were surprisingly strong, and fundraising has been low.
Taryn Branson
HD68 — Taryn Branson: Despite being severely outmatched in fundraising in this Republican district, Branson, a lawyer and former teacher, ran to a strong second-place finish in the primary, and helped Dems garner 34 percent of the vote (compared with 27 percent in 2015). Endorsed by DLCC.
Belinda Davis
HD 70 — Belinda Davis: A Republican retirement gave LSU political scientist Davis the opening to be the lead vote-getter in the primary, but she’s facing stiff fundraising competition for the general. (At Blue Ripple, we particularly appreciate that she highlights fair redistricting as a key campaign issue!) Endorsed by DLCC.
Lori Callais
HD71 — Lori Callais: Callais, a retired teacher, deserves kudos for running a long-shot Democratic campaign in a deep-red district. Her odds of winning this open seat are low, but her efforts could pay off up-ballot. Endorsed by DLCC.
Tammy Savoie
HD94 — Tammy Savoie: A clinical psychologist and Air Force vet, Savoie is neck-and-neck in fundraising with the first-term incumbent. Endorsed by DLCC and Sister District.
Bottom line — there’s no easy path to turning Louisiana purple, and voting rights will likely be in jeopardy there in the near-term. But we think it’s still important to support Dems in these races, because that’s the only way we’ll make progress in the southeast. So, please click below and donate!
3. FURTHER INFO (FOR DIEHARDS!)
For more info about the upcoming LA elections, check out the following sources:
Several great organizations are supporting LA legislature candidates — learn more about the great work being done by Sister District and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. Sister District also provides a way for you to donate your time (as opposed to dollars).
Good post-game analyses of the LA primaries by Ryan Matsumoto of Inside Elections, Republican pollster John Couvillon, and J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Interesting perspective on Louisiana’s “jungle primary” (a.k.a. “blanket primary”) system by LSU political scientist Jeffrey Sadow. (He opposes it.)
Want to read more from Blue Ripple? Visit our website, sign up for email updates, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. Folks interested in our data and modeling efforts should also check out our Github page.
Methods and sources: List of primary candidates by district via Ballotpedia. Primary election results via LA Secretary of State; note that “D % in primary” includes all Democratic candidates. Campaign contributions via LA Ethics Administration Program; data reflect cash on hand 10 days prior to primary, and are rounded to two significant figures. Registered voter demographics via LA Secretary of State.
Header image via The News Star.