This fall’s big face-off for Dems is the Virginia state legislature, where the entire 100-seat House of Delegates (HOD) is up for grabs. Dems seized control of the chamber in 2019 – but our narrow 55/45 majority is in jeopardy, and Team Blue needs help!
But which races offer Dem donors the biggest “bang for buck”? To answer this question, we used our computational model that estimates partisan preference based on demographics. We combined that info with 2019 results to identify where Dem donors can have the biggest impact on holding or flipping key districts.
We think our approach is pretty unique and valuable. Polling is rare in state legislature races, and just using prior results can be misleading if the race was low-turnout or substantially affected by a particular story. By using our model to estimate each district’s “intrinsic” lean, we can identify seats Dems might be able to flip if we do a great job getting out the vote, as well as ones where Dem incumbents might be in jeopardy if Republicans mount a successful mobilization effort for their candidate.
In this post, we’ll explain why the VA HOD election is important, describe our methods, and then tell you which 12 candidates (9 holds and 3 flips) we recommend that you support. Read on for details, but any time you’re so moved, feel free to click the ActBlue link and lend them all a hand!
In this post:
Why this year’s VA state legislature election is important
How we identified high-impact races
Our 12 picks for VA HOD
1. Why this year’s VA state legislature election is important
Even though the die was cast in 2020 for control of redistricting, state legislature elections are still crucial in key states like Virginia. We discussed many reasons in our interview with the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee’s national press secretary (read it here), but here’s a brief recap of some of the key ones:
State legislatures hold the power to expand or restrict voting access.
They’re important for preserving and expanding all sorts of Dem priorities, like abortion access, LGBTQ rights, and gun control.
They’re the “bench team” for folks who will eventually be high-quality candidates for the House and Senate.
And finally, as we saw in 2020, they can throw the Electoral College result into doubt.
In Virginia specifically, there’s another key reason to support Dem state leg candidates. State leg campaigns provide “trickle-up” benefits to races higher up on the ballot – and Terry McAuliffe is in a tight race for VA Governor this year!
And finally, there’s one more reason for Dem donors to pitch in to state leg races, which is a key focus of ours here at Blue Ripple: giving to these races is extremely high-impact. Most state leg candidates only raise about $100,000 total, while House candidates typically raise and spend $1 million or more. That means dollar for dollar, your donation makes a much bigger difference at the state leg level.
2. How we identified high-impact races
So, now that you’re (hopefully) convinced that giving to state leg matters – how do you choose? Here at Blue Ripple, we like to focus our giving on races where donations could move the needle for Dems. Because there’s no polling in these races, we use our computational model, which estimates each district’s “intrinsic” partisan lean based on the preferences and turnout rates of its demographic groups. (Our model performed quite well when we tested it on 2019 modeled vs. actual election results in VA – read our technical post for details.) We used it to classify each district based on its demographics: “lean” D or R was 50-52%, “likely” was 52-55%, and “safe” was over 55%.
For Dems running in current blue seats (potential “holds”), we excluded all of the seats where Team Blue won 55% or more of the vote in 2019, reasoning that these candidates are likely well-liked and fairly safe. The, we classified any of these current Dem seats as high-priority holds if the intrinsic demographics were lean R, likely R, or safe R. We also included a subset of the lean D districts where the Dem candidate won in 2019 with less than 52% of the vote.
For Dems running in current red seats (potential “flips”), we took a similar approach. We excluded all of the districts where the Republican won over 55% in a contested race in 2019, because we thought the GOP incumbent probably has a pretty firm lock on the district. We then prioritized Dem candidates running in R-held districts that our model says are lean R, lean D, likely D, or safe D.
When the dust settled, we landed on 12 VA House of Delegates candidates that we think are highest-priority for Dems to support: 9 “holds” and 3 “flips”. Read on for details!
3. Our 12 picks for VA HOD
Without further ado, here are our picks for whom you should consider supporting for VA HOD, split into “holds” (incumbent Dems) and “flips” (Dem challengers). Please click our ActBlue link to donate to all 12 of them at once, and help hold the line for Team Blue!
HOLD #1: Wendy Gooditis (HD 10): Gooditis flipped this seat blue in 2017 and held it last cycle, but our model suggests she remains under extreme threat. Her opponent has pledged to support an audit of the 2020 Presidential election, and is also on the record with views against trans rights and Planned Parenthood. [52.3% D in 2019; BR model 41.2% D]
HOLD #2: Chris Hurst (HD 12): Hurst and his opponent are diametrically opposed on common-sense gun safety, which is a cornerstone of the Dem’s platform, and he looks in need of support based on our model. [53.6% D in 2019; BR model 33.8% D]
HOLD #3: Joshua Cole (HD 28): Cole lost a squeaker against the prior GOP incumbent in 2017 before claiming this seat in 2019. Our model says this district is practically an even Blue/Red split, so this year’s race will likely be another nail-biter. [52.0% D in 2019; BR model 46.8% D]
HOLD #4: Elizabeth Guzman (HD 31): Guzman won this swingy district in 2017 and held it in 2019. Her GOP challenger opposes voting rights and has stoked baseless fears of voter fraud. [52.6% D in 2019; BR model 46.3% D]
HOLD #5: Dan Helmer (HD 40): Helmer flipped this seat as part of 2019’s Blue Wave. He had a solid cash advantage as of June 30, but his challenger has run an extremely aggressive digital ad campaign and poses a serious threat. [52.3% D in 2019; BR model 45.8% D]
HOLD #6: Briana Sewell (HD 51): A longtime Dem organizer and political staffer, Sewell entered this race when the Dem incumbent, Hala Ayala, bowed out to run for Lieutenant Governor. Her toxic opponent opposes gay rights, trans rights, and abortion access. [54.6% D in 2019; BR model 48.8%]
HOLD #7: Roz Tyler (HD 75): 15-year office-holder Tyler faced her first serious challenge in 2019, and held on to win one of the state’s closest elections that year. Her opponent in that race is back for another try. [51.0% D in 2019; BR model 41.7% D]
HOLD #8: Nancy Guy (HD 83): Guy flipped this swingy but historically red seat by fewer than 30 votes in a nail-biter in 2019. Her opponent supports auditing the legitimate 2020 election and opposes the minimum wage. [50.0% D in 2019; BR model 48.3% D]
HOLD #9: Martha Mugler (HD 91): Mugler won this open seat in 2019 after the longtime GOP incumbent retired to avoid a primary challenge. Her main opponent was recently caught on tape advocating to ban abortion and defund Planned Parenthood. [54.7% D in 2019; BR model 45.6% D]
FLIP #1: Debra Gardner (HD 27): Longtime state government exec Gardner is facing off against a Koch brothers’ group that is pouring money into this race. But the GOP incumbent won each of her last two races by fewer than 200 votes, so the third time may be the charm for Team Blue. [49.7% D in 2019; BR model 50.9% D]
FLIP #2: Melanie Cornelisse (HD 78): Cornelisse, a seamstress and gun safety advocate, is seeking to unseat an incumbent who’s run unopposed since he won his seat in 2013. The GOP appears to be feeling the heat, because the Republican State Legislature Committee put the district on its target list. [No D candidate in 2019; BR model 49.0% D]
FLIP #3: Kimberly Melnyk (HD 84): The GOP incumbent faced steep challenges in 2017 and 2019, and he’s unlikely to mobilize the party’s Trumpy base in 2021, so this could be a good Dem pick-up opportunity. There’s been some kerfuffle that Melnyk is a former Republican, but she’s secured support from local Dem officials and the DLCC. [48.8% D in 2019; BR model 50.5% D]