Note: Updated 5/21/22 to account for revised maps; ActBlue links to nominee funds added 8/4/22.
When it comes to control of the U.S. House, many signs for Dems are looking … challenging, to say the least. In 2022, every races will count — which is why we think it’s important for loyal donors to Team Blue to cast a wide net to find seats that are flippable or need defense…
…which brings us to New York. We recently applied our model to the Empire State, where a “special master” just released new maps (see here, here) after the original ones were thrown out as being too partisan. Although NY doesn’t offer the same “double/triple word score” opportunities as states with competitive Senate, state legislature, or Governor’s races, it still provides a chance for Dems to pick up seats in what will certainly be a closely divided House.
This post summarizes the results of our analysis; full details are in a post on our Github site.
The TL;DR is that we recommend supporting Dems in 8 key House districts in New York. Five are districts that we and others view as toss-ups; one is a potential pick-up for Dems that other election-watchers haven’t identified as such, and two are blue districts that we think are less safe for Dems than history would suggest.
Quick interlude #1 — reminder of our methods: We’ve developed and refined a demographic model to project the intrinsic Democratic lean in each new district based on its makeup in terms of race, sex, education, and population density. When we put those demographics together with what we know about partisan lean and turnout, we think our model gives a more realistic forward-looking view than the “historical model” (which looks at past voting history) of what Dem donors could conceivably achieve if we’re smart about where to deploy our resources and energy.
Quick interlude #2 — plug for our prior analyses: Check out our other 2022 analyses, including NC, TX, and more, by following this link to posts tagged ‘2022’. We’ll be updating them with ActBlue links as they’re available!
And now, back to our new analysis: Here’s a summary of the 8 New York districts we think are highest-priority Dem donation opportunities:
NY-1: In this eastern Long Island district, Dem state legislator Bridget Fleming hopes to replace Lee Zeldin, the Republican incumbent who’s running for Governor. Historical results suggest a toss-up, but we think the district is quite D-leaning and a strong pick-up opportunity for Team Blue.
NY-2: This central Long Island district’s prior R+8 lean strongly favored the Republican incumbent, but the new map is either more balanced (per others’ view) or strongly D-leaning (per our analysis). We think the new lines give a boost to educator and Army vet Jackie Gordon, the Dem who lost her bid for the seat 53-46 in 2020.
NY-3: Dem incumbent Tom Suozzi opted to make a run for the Governor’s mansion (which he lost), and Robert Zimmerman won the primary and the chance to be the first out LGBTQ member of Congress from Long Island. Analysts are predicting a tougher-than-predicted contest for Team Blue; we are more optimistic, but still concerned the seat may need defense.
NY-11: Democrat Max Rose’s attempt to reclaim the seat he lost in 2020 is being viewed as a toss-up in this district covering Staten Island and part of Brooklyn. However, we think the underlying demographics are much more in Dems’ favor than pundits are appreciating.
NY-18: Sean Patrick Maloney, the incumbent Dem, was slated to face a current state assemblyman in this swingy district, but switched to running in safe D NY-17 after redistricting. Tech entrepreneur and former Army intelligence officer Pat Ryan, who won the NY-19 special election, will try to hold onto a seat we see as tight but winnable by Team Blue.
NY-19: Incumbent Dem Antonio Delgado’s appointment to Lieutenant Governor in May left the Dem side open in this Catskill and mid-Hudson district. Our analysis suggests Dem candidate Josh Riley’s chances are actually worse than advertised, and Team Blue will need a lot of help to hold the seat.
NY-20: Dem incumbent Paul Tonko hasn’t faced a serious challenge in this Albany-area district since his first win in 2012. However, we believe the underlying demographics are moving somewhat rightward, and thus think Team Blue needs some help on defense.
NY-22: When the original proposed redistricting lopped off the southern half of this Utica-area district, incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney switched to running in the adjacent 23rd. Both primaries in this open seat were densely contested, and we and most pundits think Dem nominee Francis Conole will support to win what will likely be a close race.
| DISTRICT | OUR MODEL | HISTORICAL MODEL | NOTES/ANALYSIS |
| NY-1 | 56% Dem | 48% Dem | Flippable by Dems. |
| NY-2 | 61% Dem | 48% Dem | Rated toss-up, but appears highly flippable by Dems. |
| NY-3 | 65% Dem | 53% Dem | Rated vulnerable for Dem incumbent, but appears holdable to us. |
| NY-11 | 66% Dem | 46% Dem | Rated toss-up, but appears highly flippable for Dems. |
| NY-18 | 54% Dem | 52% Dem | Toss-up (open). |
| NY-19 | 43% Dem | 51% Dem | Rated as toss-up; appears highly vulnerable for Dems. |
| NY-20 | 54% Dem | 58% Dem | Slightly more vulnerable for Dems than previously. |
| NY-22 | 51% Dem | 53% Dem | Winnable open seat for Dems. |
Please use the button above to give to Dems in these races, and also read our full New York analysis here — it’s full of cool data, charts, and commentary, as well as more details on our methods. And finally, stay in touch by signing up for our email updates (see below) … we have more state analyses in the pipeline for you!